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I wouldn’t normally tell you this…
But maybe I’m not the only person this happens to.
Confession:
Weird things happen when I start reading a new book.
It doesn’t happen all the time, but enough to notice.
I guess the best word to describe it is synchronicity.
In tamer times, I’ll start to see that book everywhere. Or random quotes from the book begin to pop up on my social media feeds without me saying a word about the book. (No, Amazon’s algorithms aren’t at play here. Unless Bezos can now read thoughts.)
On weirder days…
Strangers mention it at the coffee shop within ear shot. Or I’ll see the book sitting on someone’s dashboard in their car.
One time, a book — seemingly on its own — fell from a library shelf in front of me. It was the book I just started reading at home.
Of course, this could all be a coincidence. But I admit I always take it as a sign to finish that book.
Well… I recently started reading a new book…
And it happened again.
This time, it came in the form of an email from the team of the renowned investor Jim O'Shaughness.
In it, he called the book “probably the most profound and important book I’ve ever read.”
What’s the book, you ask?
“The Beginning of Infinity” by a guy named David Deutsch.
And I’m quickly realizing the insights in this book have everything to do with why we’re so bullish on artificial intelligence.
Progress is Infinite
The premise is simple…
All progress, theoretical and practical, has resulted from one single thing: good explanations.
Progress, says Deutsch, is not just about accumulating more facts or data; it's about developing better explanations that help us understand the world more profoundly and act more effectively within it.
In this way, he says, progress is virtually infinite.
There is no limit to the improvement of explanations. As our understandings deepen, it leads to new questions, new challenges, and new realms for exploration.
Since there’s always new things to understand, there’s always room for improvement.
Personally, I think this is where AI is going to shine the most. It’s going to help us articulate the unarticulated faster than ever before in history.
It’s also going to accelerate the “happy accidents” and synchronicities that sometimes lead to insane breakthroughs.
BUT, the caveat here is that progress is unpredictable. And AI probably won’t make things more predictable, especially not in the short run.
Probably the opposite.
Deutsch said:
“People in 1900 did not consider the internet or nuclear power unlikely: they did not conceive of them at all. No good explanation can predict the outcome, or the probability of an outcome, of a phenomenon whose course is going to be significantly affected by the creation of new knowledge. This is a fundamental limitation on the reach of scientific prediction, and, when planning for the future, it is vital to come to terms with it.”
This hits home in 2024 — a year we expect will be a year of volatility.
BUT
While volatility implies that things will be heinously difficult to predict — and that’s true — there are some things we can expect with reasonable certainty.
With that in mind, James just gave me his #1 prediction for 2025.
AI is Going to Dominate
“AI,” he said, “will have an enormous effect on the economy.”
James has been talking to a TON of industry heads lately getting his finger on the pulse of AI.
For example, he recently talked to the CEO of Freelance.com, the biggest freelancing site in the world. It’s got over 60 MILLION freelancers looking for work.
The CEO said:
“A logo designer used to take a week to make a logo. Now she can make 10 logos in a day. Same goes for programmers, copywriters, animators, etc.”
Productivity is increasing enormously.
“AI is the first innovation where the hype and the reality are both coming true at the same time,” said James. “The Internet took about ten years before the reality caught up with the hype.
“I’ve never seen such enthusiasm for a new technology as I see right now.”
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